
The numbers and key events of the violence in the Deep South during the previous months indicate the complexity of the situation and its chronic nature. This analysis by Srisompob Jitpiromsri does not only attempt to 'read' such trends, but also monitor the 'adaptations' of key actors in the conflict and identify the principles and diversity of the current pathways towards peace.




The new DSW's report shows that violence has brought about 12,126 victims within 7 years inevitably making Thailand’s southernmost region one of the hotspot, most sensitive areas in the world.

Going over 6 years of Southern violence, Srisompob Jitpiromsri examines the dynamics of complex situation in term of the frequency of incidents, targets of attacks, tactics of operation and so on, controlled by time and place. The analysis of the past and present situation also leads to evaluating and forecasting possibilities of the future trend, comprising of 4 scenarios, and an observation of the discursive conflict in the context of Southern violence.

Overview: This article is based on the Deep South Watch’s interview with Thailand Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and Deputy Interior Minister Thavorn Senniam. A Deep South Watch team sat down with the two political leaders in early May in Bangkok to discuss the situation in the country’s southern border provinces. Part of this interview will appear in the new book Change the Southern Fire, published by the Deep South Watch. The book, which is in Thai, is scheduled to be released in late June.

The recent escalation of violence will heighten awareness about the on-going crisis in the south, but it should not serve as an obstacle to the establishment of political reforms that could contribute to a resolution to the protracted conflict. However, it is still questionable whether the current government will shift direction and introduce creative new measures that reflect greater flexibility and sensitivity toward the inclusion of a Malay nation within the territorial boundaries of Thailand.

This latest report by political scientist Srisompob Jitpiromsri briefly reviews and discusses the trends in violence since the current wave of violence erupted in the far south in January, 2004. It also summarizes the findings of a recent survey conducted by the Prince of Songkla University’s recently established Center for the Study of Conflict and Cultural Diversity (CSCC). While Srisompob notes that the current government has primarily sought to win over locals with development-centered policies, rather than relying on heavy-handed military tactics, the research findings suggest that many sectors of the public in the region still have low levels of trust in Thailand’s officials, especially the region’s security forces.

This report analyzes the trends of violence in the southern border provinces in June of 2009, when the crisis in the conflict-ridden region intensified once again. The statistical data from this period indicate a sharp rise in violent incidents, likely impacted by the Songkhla Provincial Court's controversial ruling on the Tak Bai case and the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC) meetings in May. With this significant escalation of violence, people in the region are growing increasingly concerned about its impact on their lives. It is paramount that Thai authorities increase their efforts toward resolving this long-standing conflict.