
Going over 6 years of Southern violence, Srisompob Jitpiromsri examines the dynamics of complex situation in term of the frequency of incidents, targets of attacks, tactics of operation and so on, controlled by time and place. The analysis of the past and present situation also leads to evaluating and forecasting possibilities of the future trend, comprising of 4 scenarios, and an observation of the discursive conflict in the context of Southern violence.

Overview: This article is based on the Deep South Watch’s interview with Thailand Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva and Deputy Interior Minister Thavorn Senniam. A Deep South Watch team sat down with the two political leaders in early May in Bangkok to discuss the situation in the country’s southern border provinces. Part of this interview will appear in the new book Change the Southern Fire, published by the Deep South Watch. The book, which is in Thai, is scheduled to be released in late June.

The recent escalation of violence will heighten awareness about the on-going crisis in the south, but it should not serve as an obstacle to the establishment of political reforms that could contribute to a resolution to the protracted conflict. However, it is still questionable whether the current government will shift direction and introduce creative new measures that reflect greater flexibility and sensitivity toward the inclusion of a Malay nation within the territorial boundaries of Thailand.

This latest report by political scientist Srisompob Jitpiromsri briefly reviews and discusses the trends in violence since the current wave of violence erupted in the far south in January, 2004. It also summarizes the findings of a recent survey conducted by the Prince of Songkla University’s recently established Center for the Study of Conflict and Cultural Diversity (CSCC). While Srisompob notes that the current government has primarily sought to win over locals with development-centered policies, rather than relying on heavy-handed military tactics, the research findings suggest that many sectors of the public in the region still have low levels of trust in Thailand’s officials, especially the region’s security forces.

This report analyzes the trends of violence in the southern border provinces in June of 2009, when the crisis in the conflict-ridden region intensified once again. The statistical data from this period indicate a sharp rise in violent incidents, likely impacted by the Songkhla Provincial Court's controversial ruling on the Tak Bai case and the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC) meetings in May. With this significant escalation of violence, people in the region are growing increasingly concerned about its impact on their lives. It is paramount that Thai authorities increase their efforts toward resolving this long-standing conflict.

The Deep South Watch documented this event and recorded the opinions of two academics who gave presentations.

The Deep South Watch documented this event and recorded the presentations delivered by a human rights activist and highly-ranked military commander.

The poll views on critical issues, the causes of the situation of conflict and violence, and the prospects of the Abhisit government in solving it

“The continued political turmoil in Bangkok shows no sign of being resolved anytime soon. As long as Thai governments are preoccupied with maintaining political office, they will be distracted from putting forth a genuine effort to improving the situation in the southern border provinces.”

"We have tried to resolve the separatist problem, but our efforts have unfortunately resulted in creating further social divisions. We have essentially already separated the people.”